How Many Points Do We Need?
We are all thinking the same. The fans. The players. The manager. Is it our year? How many points do we need?
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I suggest 85 will be enough this year to win the title.
How Many Points Can Our Chasers Get?
Manchester City has 14 games remaining. They currently sit at 41 points, which means the highest points tally they could attain is 83.
Arsenal has 14 games remaining and currently sit on 50 points. They need 35 to reach 85. Ultimately this means that they need to earn 35 out of 42, or they can only afford to drop 7 points from their remaining 14 games.
Liverpool has 15 games remaining and currently possesses 56 points. It means that we only need to earn 29 from a possible 45.
Getting To The Magic Number
Assuming 85 is the magic number, it would mean Liverpool could afford to drop 16 points between now and the end of the season. That would be the equivalent of drawing 8 out of our last 15 games or losing 5. The doomsday scenario would be to lose to Everton and lose to Manchester City, which would potentially take our 6 points and game-in-hand down to just 3 points. While that is not impossible, Arsenal would need to win all of their games also.
One of the prime problems for Arsenal is that the number of games remaining tends to be running out. Between now and the middle of March, Liverpool have Everton away, Wolves home, Man City away, before Newcastle and Southampton both at home. Winning all of the home and drawing the two away would give us 11 points from 15.
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Arsenal plays four games in the same period, being away to Leicester, Forest, and United, and home to West Ham. It is possible, like us that they will win all of these games, but they could just as easily drop points to Forest and United. It is realistic to estimate 10 out of 12. This would ultimately mean that with 10 games remaining, Liverpool would sit on 67 and Arsenal on 60.
Then again, beat Everton and Arsenal tie one other of their games and that 7-point gap could be 11. The next month is going to be a roller coaster, and right now, we are in the driving seat.
