PREMIER LEAGUE FORECASTS 2026/27
EPL prediction time!
For the first time in years, the new campaign feels more open than it has in a long while.
To clarify, the league’s openness is primarily among the “Rich Six,” with only Aston Villa posing a serious challenge to their dominance at the top. Below Villa, the EPL remains closely contested, as last season demonstrated.
Winning the title now requires a total in the 80-point range, a drop from the high 90s of previous years. Arsenal won last season’s title with 85 points. Notably, the points gap between 5th and 11th was just eight, highlighting not only increased competitiveness but relative parity.
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Five of the Rich Six have new managers. Only defending champions Arsenal have Mikel Arteta, who was at the helm last season.
This is how I see them going into 2026–27:
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The wedding gang is back at their battle stations, and the season is here! Are we ready? Is Liverpool FC ready?
Arsenal
Can Arteta achieve what Wenger never managed and defend the title?
On paper, yes. The Gunners enter as preseason favourites and are certain to contend. The real question is whether Arteta, having finally led his team to the top, will now adopt a more expressive, attacking style.
While the Community Shield hinted at this possibility, I sense he’ll remain pragmatic in crunch time. It will stay that way until they can secure a go-to goalscorer like Julián Álvarez of Atlético Madrid.
Overall, it’s hard to see the Gunners outside of the top three.
Manchester City
With Pep Guardiola in charge, City would be clear favourites for me.
The club has invested heavily in recent years to assemble a squad that looks both strong and balanced.
As ever, I maintain that clubs facing financial investigations should freeze their transfer activity—a move that would surely accelerate resolutions.
City will remain title contenders, but questions linger over whether Maresca is merely a placeholder until Luis Enrique becomes available.
Despite a lacklustre Community Shield performance, City are likely to bounce back quickly, especially with Abu Dhabi resources at their disposal.
The chequebook is rearing its ugly head!
Manchester United
Michael Carrick exceeded expectations by steering United to third place and a Champions League berth after the instability of the Ruben Amorim era.
Last season, he benefited from focusing solely on Premier League fixtures, supported by a talented squad—especially in attack.
Now, with a congested schedule and heightened expectations, the pressure intensifies.
Will Carrick’s trajectory mirror Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s, another former United legend but inexperienced manager, or can he sustain progress?
It promises to be a revealing campaign. I anticipate a top-six finish, though that may not fully satisfy the United faithful.
Liverpool
A season of rebuilding appears inevitable.
Despite the 2024–25 title win and the impact of the Diogo Jota tragedy, the Arne Slot era ultimately proved disastrous. The squad Slot inherited steadily declined over his two-year tenure, and Liverpool only just secured fifth place—and a Champions League spot—despite significant transfer activity.
Andoni Iraola’s arrival brings renewed optimism for a return to attacking football.
While the squad still needs strengthening, the outlook isn’t as dire as many fans fear. I expect Liverpool to claim a Champions League place and provide plenty of entertaining football along the way.
Chelsea
Similarly, a rebuild is in prospect.
Xabi Alonso is in the position of Michael Carrick with no European football to contend with. Can he take advantage of the extra time and build style and identity at a club that hasn’t had one consistently despite past successes?
Alonso showed his worth as a coach in the Bundesliga, taking Bayer Leverkusen to the title despite the Bayern Munich juggernaut.
He’s a coach, so his short reign at Real Madrid doesn’t come as a surprise. Real is a club for managers, not coaches.
I believe Chelsea will be strong contenders for the top four, possibly even more. However, in the background, how much will ownership disputes affect the team on the pitch?
Tottenham Hotspur
After two seasons in 17th, Spurs will be all out to re-establish their status in the Rich Six.
We can expect fireworks under new manager Roberto De Zerbi, on and off the field.
Another club without European distractions, add in a serious spend in the transfer market this summer, and Tottenham have every possibility of moving up the table.
The ingredients are in place for a top-six finish. Can the manager supply the recipe to make it happen?
Aston Villa
Villa have a top manager in Unai Emery.
Emery has already lost two of his top players in Morgan Rogers and Youri Tielemans, while Ezri Konsa is also being heavily linked with a move away.
After watching them fall narrowly to PSG in the Super Cup Final, even with a catalogue of regulars absent, Villa fans have much to be positive about.
Emery is a very resourceful leader.
The key question for clubs like Villa is whether they can cope in both the Premier League and Champions League at the same time. Still, I expect them to be in contention for a Champions League place.
Newcastle United
Newcastle have been positioned similarly to Villa over the past few seasons but appear to have taken a step back, with key players leaving along with manager Eddie Howe.
In theory, they should be less competitive after signing lower-profile players.
Lower expectations might actually help new manager Matthias Jaissle, who has a reputation for getting the most out of his players even with limited resources.
It will be interesting to see how the Geordies, both the players and the fans, respond to this new change of direction.
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Everton
The Toffees were my dark horse tip last year.
It was a tip that almost came off; if not for a dismal run at the end of the season, Everton would probably have European competition to look forward to this season.
It’s a pivotal time for the club and David Moyes. Everton are settled into their new home, and while I feel Moyes is underrated as a manager, there is already a strong undercurrent among the fans that he’s taken the team as far as they can go.
Moyes is in the final year of his contract, and if he hopes to extend his tenure as manager, he will need to be a bit more tactically daring, learning to trust some of the younger players on the roster.
Everton have young talent: Branthwaite, Armstrong, Hackney, Dibling and George, to name but a few. Older, established players include Pickford, Garner and Dewsbury-Hall.
That’s a good mix.
If Ndiaye stays, add the pace of new recruit Brennan Johnson, and Everton could surprise.
The key is whether the manager will be bolder in his outlook.
I would place Everton in the “Competitive Group.”
The Competitive Group
Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Leeds and Nottingham Forest.
All these teams can beat—or take points off—the top teams but don’t have enough consistency to break into the top six.
Admittedly, there is always the possibility that one club can leap out of the pack to prove me wrong.
Relegation Strugglers
Coventry, Hull City, Ipswich and Sunderland.
I’m afraid it’s back to the promoted teams potentially being on the path to a quick return to the Championship.
Last season, Sunderland had a remarkable rise from Championship qualifiers via the play-offs to seventh and Europa League qualification.
Accordingly, I think they may struggle under the pressure of raised expectations and the extra demands of European competition.
My Forecasts for 2026–27
I’m going to cop out on my forecasts until Christmas.
It’s actually a breath of fresh air to be so uncertain after years of one-club domination.
Last year, my forecast for the title was:
- Arsenal
- Manchester City
- Liverpool
This year, I don’t know!
Whilst logic says it should be Arsenal once more, I have a feeling it won’t be.
What I would say is that the top six will have the Rich Six in contention, along with Aston Villa.
My Dark Horses
As for a “Dark Horse,” I’m going to put two teams forward.
First, Leeds are gradually improving their squad. The manager has toned down his ambitious football to match the squad’s level, and they have some of the most passionate fans around to cheer them on.
My second choice is Newcastle.
Illogical, I know, but I just have a feeling that the reset of expectations might actually work in their favour.
I’ll revisit all my forecasts in time.