Pro/Rel Round Up

Pro/Rel Round Up

With 7-8 matches left for each team respectively in the Premier League and Championship it is about the time of the year. If you’re like me, you start to make permutations regarding who is staying, going, and coming up. This can add some extra drama especially when faced with a league race that is essentially over.

Premier League

Realistically, spots 10-20 are still not “safe” at this point in the season, for the sake of this post the 10 and 11 spots have been excluded for their relative “safer” appeal. As for the rest of the squads, definitive patterns are beginning to provide some solid clues as to who will escape the drop this season. As a bit of fun to end the year, and in order to sympathize with the relegation threatened teams the liberty of a simple permutation will be taken. Holding a conservative approach to calculating results, affording a draw when matched up with a team in the bottom 11, applying a loss when matched up with a top 9 team, it can give a glimpse at what the table may look like on the final match day.

BHA (34pts)- Lei-H, Hud-H, CP-A, Bur-A, MNU-H, Pool-A, [Tot-H], & [MNC-A]- (37pts)

New (32pts)- Hud-H, Lei-A, Ars-H, Eve-A, WB-H, Wat-A, Che-H, & [Tot-A]- (35pts)

Swa (31pts)- MNU-A, WB-A, Eve-H, MNC-A, Che-H, Bou-A, Sto-H, & [SH-H]- (35pts)

CP (30pts)- Pool-H, Bou-A, BHA-H, Wat-A, Lei-H, Sto-A, WB-H- (35pts)

Hud (31pts)- New-A, BHA-A, Wat-H, Eve-H, MNC-A, Ars-H, & [Che-A]- (34pts)

WHU (30pts)- SH-H, Che-A, Sto-H, Ars-A, MNC-H, Lei-A, Eve-H, & [MNU-H]- (32pts)

SH (28pts)- WHU-A, Ars-A, Che-H, Bou-H, Eve-A, MNC-H, [Lei-A], & [Swa-A]- (31pts)

Sto (27pts)- Ars-A, Tot-H, WHU-A, Bur-H, Pool-A, CP-H, & Swa-A- (31pts)

WB (20pts)- Bur-H, Swa-H, MNU-A, Pool-H, New-A, Tot-H, & CP-A- (24pts)

The conservative approach would seem to indicate that West Brom, Stoke, and Southampton might be plying their trade in the Championship next season based on the difficulty of fixtures and starting position. However, a few caveats:

1. The home-away factor/form has not been applied, though the games are marked.
2. Rescheduled matches, in [ ]’s may impact teams via fatigue or opponent line-ups
3. Current form hasn’t been factored in.
4. West Ham’s current home fan trouble may have a larger role to play.
5. The “new manager effect” in play at Southampton & Stoke is a factor.
6. Of course the Premier league can be unpredictable at times.
7. The International Break’s fatigue and injury factor may play a role as well.

All this being said the table and remaining fixtures do tell a tale of sorts, though the final results remain to be decided. This simple calculation can provide a touch of fun or wager to watching the bottom teams slog it out for the final spots in next years edition of the Premier League.

Ian’s Take

I would be willing to say that West Ham’s current form coupled with the turmoil surrounding the club may just be enough to take them into the relegation zone. I feel some sympathy for the Hammers after a couple semi-promising seasons in recent years, but this storied club may need a few years to re-evaluate in the Championship at this rate. That being said, Southampton may be able to ride their recent FA Cup Quarterfinal win to some confidence and un-anticipated points in the coming weeks under new manager Mark Hughes. The chemistry appeared to be growing in the second half of that match as they eventually put away Wigan. A more free moving attacking style from the Saints under Hughes may allow some of their players to finally showcase the quality that is in the squad.

EFL Championship

The Championship is its own beast, much more unpredictable in comparison to the Premier League. If you are the casual fan, you may not be aware that the top 2 teams receive automatic promotion to the Premier League, the next 4 spots (3-6) have a battle royal, playoff style for the last spot. A permutation is slightly more tricky, there are 24 teams, leaving the middle area teams in more precarious position in regards to predictability. At this point it would be a long shot see a team from the 10-14 spots make a run to the playoff spots. So, the top 9 are in focus, when the top 9 have match ups with each other a draw is applied, playing any team outside of that a win is applied. Additionally, for teams in the 10-15 spots a bracket [ ] is applied, this ‘bracket effect’ will factor in on the personal take.

Wolves (82pts)- MBo-A, HC-H, CC-A, DC-H, BiC-H, BW-A, ShW-H, & Su-A- (100pts) 1

Cardiff (76pts)- BA-H, SU-A, WW-H, AV-A, [NC-A], NF-H, DC-A, HC-A, & R-H- (95pts) 2

Fulham (69pts)- [NC-A], [LU-H], ShW-A, R-H, [BF-H], [MW-A], Su-H, & BiC-A- (93pts) 3

Villa (69pts)- HC-A, R-H, [NC-A], CC-H, [LU-H], [IT-A], DC-H, & [MW-A]- (89pts) 4

Derby (62pts)- S-H, PNE-A, BW-H, WW-A, BA-A, MBo-H, CC-H, AV-A, & Ba-H- (79 pts) 7

M’Boro (62pts)- WW-H, BA-A, NF-H, SU-A, BC-H, DC-A, [MW-H], & [IT-A]- (76pts) 8

Bristol (61pts)- Ba-A, [BF-H], [MW-A], BiC-H, Mbo-A, HC-H, NF-A, & SU-H- (81pts) 5

PNE (60pts)- ShW-A, DC-H, R-A, [LU-H], [QPR-A], [NC-H], SU-A, & BA-H- (80pts) 6

Sheff U (60pts)- [BF-A], CC-H, Ba-A, MBo-H, [MW-H], BiC-A, PNE-H, & BC-A- (76pts) 9

Based on these loose calculations, Wolves and Cardiff will be returning to the Premier League next season, to be joined by one of Fulham, Villa, Bristol, or PNE via the playoff spots. The qualifiers for this ‘bracket’ are:

1. The home-away factor/form has not been applied, though the games are marked.
2. The Bracket [ ] matches could be potential for a big sway in the points totals
3. Current form hasn’t been factored in.
4. Of course the Championship can be VERY unpredictable as mentioned.

Ian’s Take

I would be willing to say Wolves and Cardiff hold those predicted spots. Fulham and Villa have the most bracketed [ ] match ups (4) and therefore are volatile situations. Derby and M’boro have the most match ups against top 9 teams (5), leaving them very vulnerable to faltering as well. So if you have been following my crazy analysis above, Bristol and PNE have the easiest routes, and should make the playoffs. Leaving what should be a melee for the final playoff spot between Derby, Villa, & M’Boro. I have a hard time picking that last team, but I think Villa will use their starting position in the table to hang on to that last spot.

I don’t claim to be an expert or to fully understand statistics, but I love trying to predict the outcomes of things like this, so don’t take me too seriously! I Hope you use this information to read up on all these storied clubs, maybe pick a few ‘horses in the race’, and be entertained as the season comes to its dramatic end.